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Israel will use the fact that America is preoccupied with its election to respond to Iran firing up to 200 missiles at it, several analysts have told Newsweek.
Iran is currently bracing for Israel’s expected reaction to the Islamic republic’s attack against its longtime enemy on Tuesday, which it said was in response to the killing of Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and “the intensification of the regime’s evils with the support of the United States” over attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
Escalations continue to stoke fears of an all-out war in the region, amid Iran vowing a “more powerful attack” if Israel retaliates, Israel’s ground operation against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and the upcoming anniversary of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which began after Hamas’ October 7 attack.
It all comes as the U.S., Israel’s most powerful ally, is heading for a major election on November 5, when America will decide on whether to put Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump into the White House.
“Israel will use this time—while the U.S. is busy with itself and the election—to hit Iran, while the U.S. is not warning or stopping it,” Beni Sabti a researcher in the Iran program at The Institute for National Security Studies, told Newsweek.
Similarly, Michael Pregent, a senior Middle East analyst at the Hudson Institute think tank, said it is typical for countries to take advantage of this window.
“Israel is basically taking advantage of a permissive environment ahead of the U.S. election to get all it can,” he told Newsweek.
He believes this will continue during a “lame duck session,” in the period before the new president takes office, when Israel will “continue to step up their attacks, to get all they can.”
Pregent added: “Our adversaries normally take advantage of this window – when it comes to Iran, Russia and China—and now we see Israel taking advantage of this window as well—because they believe they have to do everything they can ahead of the outcome of the U.S. election to ensure their security.”
Feryal Cherif, an associate professor at California’s Loyola Marymount University, said Israel is “emboldened” by the fact that America is in an election cycle.
“During non-election periods, it is more common to see U.S. administrations using carrot-and-stick strategies to try to push Israel in directions that align more with U.S. interests,” she told Newsweek.
Newsweek has contacted the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the U.S. Department of Defense for any response to these comments.
While U.S. President Joe Biden has said he would not support Israel launching a retaliatory strike on nuclear sites in Iran, he has reiterated his support, saying: “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.”